Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Monday 13 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 22101 (+1546) 560246 (+28989) 32237 (+2419) 505908 (+25024)
Italy 19899 (+431) 156363 (+4092) 34211 (+1677) 102253 (+1984)
Spain 17209 (+603) 166831 (+3804) 62391 (+3282) 87231 (-81)
France 14393 (+561) 132591 (+2937) 27186 (+795) 91012 (+1581)
United Kingdom 10612 (+737) 84279 (+5288) 344 (+0) 73323 (+4551)
Iran 4474 (+117) 71686 (+1657) 43894 (+1947) 23318 (-407)
Belgium 3600 (+254) 29647 (+1629) 6463 (+477) 19584 (+898)
China 3339 (+0) 82052 (+99) 77575 (+50) 1138 (+49)
Germany 3022 (+151) 127854 (+2402) 60300 (+2900) 64532 (-649)
Netherlands 2737 (+94) 25587 (+1174) 250 (+0) 22600 (+1080)
Brazil 1223 (+83) 22192 (+1230) 173 (+0) 20796 (+1147)
Turkey 1198 (+97) 56956 (+4789) 3446 (+481) 52312 (+4211)
Switzerland 1106 (+70) 25415 (+308) 12700 (+600) 11609 (-362)
Sweden 899 (+12) 10483 (+332) 381 (+0) 9203 (+320)
Canada 713 (+60) 24292 (+974) 7106 (+678) 16473 (+236)
Portugal 504 (+34) 16585 (+598) 277 (+11) 15804 (+553)
Indonesia 373 (+46) 4241 (+399) 359 (+73) 3509 (+280)
Austria 350 (+13) 13945 (+139) 6987 (+383) 6608 (-257)
Ireland 334 (+14) 9655 (+727) 25 (+0) 9296 (+713)
Ecuador 333 (+18) 7466 (+209) 501 (+90) 6632 (+101)
India 331 (+43) 9205 (+759) 1080 (+111) 7794 (+605)
Romania 316 (+25) 6300 (+310) 852 (+94) 5132 (+191)
Philippines 297 (+50) 4648 (+220) 197 (+40) 4154 (+130)
Algeria 293 (+18) 1914 (+89) 591 (+131) 1030 (-60)
Mexico 273 (+40) 4219 (+375) 1772 (+1139) 2174 (-804)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 110832 (+5429) 1769435 (+74184) 345248 (+20757)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 115903 ( +5438) 1808200 ( +61692) 366812 ( +21842)
Tue 14 April 2020 120981 ( +5078) 1864730 ( +56531) 387633 ( +20822)
Wed 15 April 2020 125675 ( +4694) 1916143 ( +51413) 407245 ( +19611)
Thu 16 April 2020 129975 ( +4300) 1962583 ( +46440) 425508 ( +18263)
Fri 17 April 2020 133880 ( +3905) 2004273 ( +41690) 442336 ( +16829)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 3339 (+0) 82052 (+99) 77575 (+50)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 3277 ( +0) 81159 ( +0) 76433 ( +26)
Tue 14 April 2020 3277 ( +0) 81159 ( +0) 76455 ( +23)
Wed 15 April 2020 3277 ( +0) 81159 ( +0) 76475 ( +20)
Thu 16 April 2020 3277 ( +0) 81159 ( +0) 76492 ( +17)
Fri 17 April 2020 3277 ( +0) 81159 ( +0) 76507 ( +15)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 17209 (+603) 166831 (+3804) 62391 (+3282)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 16946 ( +269) 164970 ( +2174) 63158 ( +2145)
Tue 14 April 2020 17170 ( +224) 166803 ( +1833) 64995 ( +1837)
Wed 15 April 2020 17356 ( +185) 168344 ( +1540) 66551 ( +1556)
Thu 16 April 2020 17508 ( +153) 169633 ( +1289) 67857 ( +1306)
Fri 17 April 2020 17634 ( +125) 170709 ( +1076) 68944 ( +1088)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 19899 (+431) 156363 (+4092) 34211 (+1677)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 19620 ( +264) 151049 ( +1553) 34332 ( +1303)
Tue 14 April 2020 19849 ( +229) 152409 ( +1360) 35567 ( +1235)
Wed 15 April 2020 20047 ( +198) 153597 ( +1188) 36730 ( +1163)
Thu 16 April 2020 20218 ( +171) 154633 ( +1036) 37818 ( +1088)
Fri 17 April 2020 20366 ( +147) 155534 ( +901) 38831 ( +1013)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 10612 (+737) 84279 (+5288) 344 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 11277 ( +715) 87491 ( +4559) 311 ( +21)
Tue 14 April 2020 11919 ( +642) 91728 ( +4237) 333 ( +22)
Wed 15 April 2020 12484 ( +565) 95618 ( +3890) 357 ( +24)
Thu 16 April 2020 12974 ( +490) 99150 ( +3532) 383 ( +26)
Fri 17 April 2020 13392 ( +418) 102325 ( +3175) 411 ( +28)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 22101 (+1546) 560246 (+28989) 32237 (+2419)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 23748 ( +1616) 571416 ( +21339) 32161 ( +1173)
Tue 14 April 2020 25219 ( +1471) 590214 ( +18799) 33121 ( +961)
Wed 15 April 2020 26532 ( +1313) 606599 ( +16385) 33897 ( +775)
Thu 16 April 2020 27683 ( +1151) 620747 ( +14148) 34515 ( +619)
Fri 17 April 2020 28677 ( +994) 632866 ( +12119) 35005 ( +489)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 14393 (+561) 132591 (+2937) 27186 (+795)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 15175 ( +642) 141512 ( +5202) 34288 ( +3477)
Tue 14 April 2020 15733 ( +557) 146227 ( +4715) 38156 ( +3869)
Wed 15 April 2020 16210 ( +478) 150463 ( +4235) 42462 ( +4305)
Thu 16 April 2020 16615 ( +405) 154237 ( +3775) 47253 ( +4791)
Fri 17 April 2020 16955 ( +340) 157577 ( +3340) 52585 ( +5332)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 3022 (+151) 127854 (+2402) 60300 (+2900)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 3196 ( +141) 127422 ( +1917) 65073 ( +3693)
Tue 14 April 2020 3318 ( +123) 129064 ( +1642) 68411 ( +3338)
Wed 15 April 2020 3423 ( +105) 130464 ( +1400) 71381 ( +2970)
Thu 16 April 2020 3511 ( +88) 131653 ( +1189) 73985 ( +2604)
Fri 17 April 2020 3585 ( +74) 132660 ( +1007) 76241 ( +2256)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 2737 (+94) 25587 (+1174) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 2781 ( +77) 25070 ( +608) 250 ( +0)
Tue 14 April 2020 2847 ( +66) 25611 ( +540) 250 ( +0)
Wed 15 April 2020 2902 ( +55) 26088 ( +478) 250 ( +0)
Thu 16 April 2020 2949 ( +46) 26508 ( +420) 250 ( +0)
Fri 17 April 2020 2987 ( +39) 26876 ( +368) 250 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 3600 (+254) 29647 (+1629) 6463 (+477)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 3966 ( +339) 29449 ( +841) 6546 ( +277)
Tue 14 April 2020 4294 ( +328) 30191 ( +743) 6789 ( +243)
Wed 15 April 2020 4606 ( +312) 30842 ( +650) 6999 ( +210)
Thu 16 April 2020 4898 ( +292) 31407 ( +566) 7180 ( +180)
Fri 17 April 2020 5166 ( +268) 31897 ( +489) 7332 ( +153)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 899 (+12) 10483 (+332) 381 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 1000 ( +54) 11104 ( +513) 405 ( +25)
Tue 14 April 2020 1048 ( +48) 11602 ( +498) 427 ( +22)
Wed 15 April 2020 1089 ( +41) 12082 ( +480) 447 ( +19)
Thu 16 April 2020 1124 ( +35) 12542 ( +460) 464 ( +17)
Fri 17 April 2020 1153 ( +29) 12980 ( +438) 478 ( +14)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 232 (+24) 6674 (+318) 439 (+64)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 248 ( +19) 6934 ( +298) 472 ( +44)
Tue 14 April 2020 265 ( +17) 7207 ( +272) 511 ( +39)
Wed 15 April 2020 281 ( +15) 7453 ( +247) 545 ( +33)
Thu 16 April 2020 295 ( +14) 7675 ( +221) 573 ( +28)
Fri 17 April 2020 307 ( +12) 7872 ( +197) 595 ( +23)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 1106 (+70) 25415 (+308) 12700 (+600)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 1112 ( +33) 24847 ( +217) 12877 ( +390)
Tue 14 April 2020 1141 ( +28) 25030 ( +183) 13183 ( +305)
Wed 15 April 2020 1165 ( +24) 25184 ( +154) 13419 ( +236)
Thu 16 April 2020 1186 ( +21) 25313 ( +129) 13599 ( +180)
Fri 17 April 2020 1203 ( +17) 25421 ( +108) 13736 ( +137)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 12 April 2020 4474 (+117) 71686 (+1657) 43894 (+1947)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 13 April 2020 4358 ( +58) 74319 ( +1764) 46827 ( +3974)
Tue 14 April 2020 4410 ( +52) 75967 ( +1648) 51170 ( +4343)
Wed 15 April 2020 4456 ( +46) 77502 ( +1534) 55915 ( +4746)
Thu 16 April 2020 4497 ( +41) 78924 ( +1423) 61101 ( +5186)
Fri 17 April 2020 4534 ( +36) 80239 ( +1315) 66768 ( +5667)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.